中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (2): 20-28,163.doi: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201811093

• 技术经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

低碳背景下的省域一次能源供给情景预测:以浙江省为例

文凡1, 刘军1, 牛东晓2, 孙泽2, 梁毅2, 肖瑶3   

  1. 1. 国网浙江省电力有限公司电力经济技术研究院, 浙江 杭州 310008;
    2. 华北电力大学 经济与管理学院, 北京 102206;
    3. 国网辽阳供电公司, 辽宁 辽阳 111000
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-22 修回日期:2019-09-08 出版日期:2020-02-05 发布日期:2020-02-05
  • 作者简介:文凡(1982-),男,硕士,工程师,从事电力市场、技术经济评价研究,E-mail:seefunwen@126.com;牛东晓(1962-),男,博士,教授,从事电力技术经济评价、电力负荷预测研究,E-mail:niudx@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471059);国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(SGJS0000FZWT1700356)

Scenario Prediction of Provincial Primary Energy Supply under Low Carbon Background: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

WEN Fan1, LIU Jun1, NIU Dongxiao2, SUN Ze2, LIANG Yi2, XIAO Yao3   

  1. 1. Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. Ltd., Hangzhou 310008, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
    3. State Grid Liaoyang Electric Power Company, Liaoyang 111000, China
  • Received:2018-11-22 Revised:2019-09-08 Online:2020-02-05 Published:2020-02-05
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71471059) and Science and Technology Project of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. (No.SGJS0000FZWT1700356)

摘要: 随着国民经济的快速发展,能源消费产生的碳排放量日益增多,随之带来的环境破坏也日益严重。从低碳发展的角度对区域能源供给的发展趋势展开研究具有重要的现实意义和实用价值。以浙江省为例对煤炭、石油、天然气3类一次能源的供给趋势设定了常规发展情景、政策发展情景、技术发展情景等3种情景模式;运用多元线性回归模型对浙江省未来的一次能源供给量进行了情景预测。结果表明,低碳发展策略会影响区域能源的供给结构,有利于区域内一次能源供给规划。

关键词: 低碳背景, 能源供给, 情景预测, 多元线性回归

Abstract: With the rapid development of China's economy, carbon emissions are increasing and environmental damage is becoming more and more serious. It is of great practical significance and practical value to study the evolution trend of regional energy supply from the perspective of low carbon development. Therefore, Zhejiang Province is used as an example to set three scenarios: routine development scenario, policy development scenario, and technology development scenario for the primary energy supply trend of coal, oil and natural gas. Based on the scenario prediction of low-carbon energy supply in Zhejiang Province by multivariate linear regression models, it can be concluded that low-carbon development will affect the structure of regional energy supply, which is conducive to the planning of primary energy supply in the region.

Key words: low carbon background, energy supply, scenario forecast, multivariate linear regression