中国电力 ›› 2012, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 101-107.doi: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2012.4.101.6

• 电力经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国中长期能源和电力需求及碳排放情景分析

徐敏杰, 胡兆光, 谭显东, 单葆国   

  1. 国网能源研究院,北京 100052
  • 收稿日期:2011-07-25 修回日期:2012-01-10 出版日期:2012-04-18 发布日期:2016-02-29
  • 作者简介:徐敏杰(1975-),男,山东临沂人,博士,主要从事能源经济、电力供需分析、电力需求侧管理、政策模拟、智能用电等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司资助项目(项目名称:满足国家低碳发展目标的能源和电力需求研究)

Scenario analysis on mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China

XU Min-jie, HU Zhao-guang, TAN Xian-dong,SHAN Bao-guo   

  1. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 100052, China
  • Received:2011-07-25 Revised:2012-01-10 Online:2012-04-18 Published:2016-02-29

摘要: 综合考虑未来经济发展和主要行业产品产量,对比国内外分行业能源强度和电力强度的变化,采用“自下而上”的方法构建了中国中长期能源、电力需求及碳排放情景分析模型。分3种情景对2015、2020、2030年的全国能源、电力需求与结构以及碳排放进行了分析,测算了非化石能源消费比例和碳排放强度。结果表明,2020年我国一次能源需求50亿t标准煤左右,全社会用电量7.7×1012 kW·h左右;3种经济发展情景下,均能实现2020年碳排放量比2005年下降40%~45%的目标;在非化石能源开发达到规划上限的条件下,能够实现非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重15%的目标。

关键词: 能源需求, 电力需求, 碳排放, 中长期情景分析, 分析模型

Abstract: By comprehensive consideration of future economic development and the production volume in major industries, the scenarios analysis model of mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China by “bottom-up” method was constructed. The primary energy, electricity demand, energy structure and carbon emission in 2015, 2020 and 2030 of three different circumstances were forecasted. The ratio of non-fossil energy and carbon emission intensity were measured and calculated. The results show that the primary energy demand in China could be raised to about 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the electricity demand could be raised to about 7.7 PW?h by 2020. If maximize the use of all kinds of clean energy, the carbon emission intensity in 2020 can be reduced more than 40%~45% of the carbon emission intensity in 2005, and the ratio of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption could be raised to 15% by 2020 in all the three economic development circumstances.

Key words: energy demand, electricity demand, carbon emissions, mid-long term scenario analysis, analysis model

中图分类号: 

  • F407.6